Beyond the South End

By Ted Sylvester

 

(This was Ted’s New Year’s column for 1987. A lot of local history here.)

 

Win some, lose some in predictions game

 

It finally happened. After years of criticism of those professional prognosticators who make year predictions so nebulous that no matter what happens they can claim a correct prediction. I have fallen into the same trap. Several of the predictions for 1987 could be taken either way. It was stated that 1987 would bring a blizzard to the coast the likes of which we have not seen in a decade. We had some whopping snowstorms, but were they really classifies as blizzards? Were they the worst in a decade? Of course the prognosticators would say yes.

Residents were told they would get a real break on food prices when two new supermarkets went head to head for business. Did that happen? The prognosticator would say definitely. But my grocery bill seemed as high as ever. You be the judge on that one.

Then there was the prediction there would be a major commercial push in the downtown area by the Chamber of Commerce to ward off the competition from shopping centers. Also, it was said that a men’s clothing and shoe store would locate in the downtown and there would be construction in the area of Rankin Block. Well, Coffin’s reopened under new ownership. It has men’s clothes and shoes. A new Wasses’ Wagon was built at Rankin Block. The prognosticator would tell you that those predictions were right on the money.

I added up the score using conservative and liberal interpretations of the rules. On the one hand, the score was 14 of 25 predictions correct for a 56 percent accuracy rating. On the other hand, using a most liberal interpretation of the list, the score was 23 of 38 predictions correct for a 60 percent rating.

What it boils down to was that with the help of a few friends, the predictions here last year were pure guesswork. No one can look into the future accurately but can try to provide fodder for those of us who have nothing better to do than to let the mind wander and wonder.

At the top of my list, I said that Frederick Newcomb 3^rd, prominent in local Republican circles, would get the appointment from Gov. John R. McKernan to become the area’s new district attorney to replace John Atwood, who was tabbed as Maine commissioner of public safety. Mark that one wrong. William Anderson got the appointment.

Along the same line, I said that there would be more than one “major” appointment to state positions form the county. Well, Richard Warner was appointed to the state energy department. Can’t think of any others.

Also I said that at least three presidential hopefuls would visit the coastal area in 1987. Close. There were two. Pat Robertson and Pete du Pont.

But how about this one? I said that there would be two new city councilors elected this year. Right on. Jean Chalmers and Robert Peabody joined the council. But I also said that incumbent councilors, Raymond Moulaison and Warren Perry, would not seek re-election. Got that half-right. Moulaison did not run. Perry did, but lost.

About the SAD 5 election, I said that Adele Faber would be re-elected and that Ronald Melendy would not run for another term. Fifty-fifty on that one. On the issue of reapportionment, I said that despite several court appeals, the SAD 5 board’s makeup of 13 members would remain unchanged. Wrong. Reapportionment was accomplished. We now have an 11-member board.

As far as city government was concerned, I predicted a major revamping, which would include restrictions in several departments. That was close enough for two check marks in the correct column. The City Council created a new department to be headed by a planner and economic developer that would have under its umbrella the operations of the Code Enforcement and Community Development departments.

I also said there would be the usual personnel changes in local government, the city and schools, which would result in the resignation of more than one department head. Was that accurate? One almost needed a scorecard. Resignations included William Sternberg and Gerald Malcolm from the school department, and David St. Peter, Alton Curtis, Barry Faber and Valmore Blastow from department-head positions in the city.

The biggest bomb in the prediction list was to say that the city’s fish pier would be completed and in operation. Not only would it be a big success with fishermen, it would serve as a catalyst to boost the windjammer trade. None of that happened. But keep it in mind for 1988. It will happen eventually.

On the opposite side of the picture, I said that the controversy surrounding the proposed construction of a new jail would be a major story in 1987. From the looks of our files, that certainly was true. Another “right on” call was to say that despite court action, there would be no new trailer parks located in the city in 1987.

Law officers were supposed to haul off the biggest drug bust the county ever saw in 1987. They had some success, that’s for sure, with several arrests made. But the biggest ever? Naw.

There was supposed to be a new bank locating in the Lime City this year. Didn’t happen.

I also said that Maurice Nute would retire from the U.S. Post Office after many years. He tricked me into that one. At year’s end, he was still doling out those stamps one at a time.

In sports predictions, the batting average was .500. There was a three-way prediction concerning the Red Sox. Some said they would repeat as champions. Wrong. Others said they would pick up a major player who would lead them to the promised  land. Wrong. I said that they would finish third behind the Yankees and Baltimore. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

But on the local scene, get this. I said that Rockland would repeat as state golf champions, Belfast as state wrestling champions; that Rockland and Mount View basketball teams would fight it out for Class B basketball honors; and that the two teams would meet in the Eastern Maine finals. Correct on all counts. Also, I said that Georges Valley would capture the state soccer title. They had a great year, but came up a little short.

What about 1988? Have to give that some thought.